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31.01.05
Der Verpeilungsfaktor schlaegt zu
Da ich ganz viele andere Dinge tuen sollte, als die dinge die ich momentan tue, moechte ich meine aufmerksamkeit (blogs dienen haputsaechlich dem author selber) auf einen artikel von mir lenken den ich vor einigen jahren im wiki des koelner chaos computer clubs veroeffentlicht habe welcher erklaert woran man umbedingt denken muss wenn man dinge tuen will.
Der Verpeilungsfaktor bestimmt sich nach der folgenden Formel:
Ps = von einen Teammitglied geschätzte Projektdauer
Pi = tatsächliche Dauer eines Projektes
Vq = VerpeilungsFaktor
Pi
Vq = ----
Ps
Erkennbar ist, dass der Verpeilungsfaktor gegen unendlich läuft, wenn die tatsächliche Projektzeit steigt. Der theoretische Verpeilungsfaktor von 1 ist in der Praxis noch nie beobachtet worden.
Verpeilungsfaktoren müssen bei allen Projekten mit einkalkuliert werden. Da Pi aber nicht zu Beginn des Projektes (Pb) bekannt ist, sondern erst zum Zeitpunkt des Abschlusses des Projektes (Pe), ist die Verpeilungsvorhersage ein sehr schwieriges Themengebiet. In chaosnahen Strukturen wird diese Tätigkeit meistens durch den Chef Verpeiler wahrgenommen.
Der Chef Verpeiler zieht zur Vorhersage des Verpeilungsfaktors meistens eine Menge vorhersehbarer Faktoren ein.
Definieren wir zunaechst folgende Faktoren:
Pp: Anzahl der an dem Projekt beteiligen Personen
Pc: Anzahl der projektinternen Schnittstellen
Pa: Anzahl der Projektinternen Abhängigkeiten
Kd: Anzahl der direkten Kommunikationsschnittstellen
(Eine direkte Kommunikationsschnittstelle ist gegeben, wenn die beiden Personen A und B direkt miteinander sprechen)
Ki: Anzahl der indirekten Kommunikationsschnittstellen
(Eine indirekte Kommunikationsschnitstelle ist gegeben, wenn die beiden Personen A und B ausschließlich ueber C miteinander sprechen. C kann beispielsweise eine im Dienstweg vorgesehene Person sein)
Tm: Klatsch- und Tratschanteil.
(Anteil der Projektzeit, den die Projektbeteiligten mit Geschwätz verbringen. Hierzu ist das soziale Geflecht von Pp einzuschaetzen)
Lg: Menge der zu transportierenden, physikalisch vorhandenen Gegenstände
Lp: Anzahl der Personen, welche physikalisch vorhandene Gegenstände transportieren.
W: Räumliche Entfernung zwischen den Projektbeteiligten
Der ChefVerpeiler kann sich auf folgende Faustregeln zur Verpeilungsvorhersage stützen:
Strebt Pp gegen unendlich, so geht Vp geradlinig gegen unendlich.
Strebt Pc gegen unendlich, so geht Vp logarithmisch gegen unendlich.
Pa geht im Quadrat in Vp ein.
Strebt Kd gegen 0, so strebt Vp gegen unendlich
Ki geht im Kubik in Vp ein.
Die Abhängigkeit von Tm zu Vp laesst sich in einer nach oben offenen Parabel beschreiben.
der Wendepunkt der Parabel liegt bei Tm=20%
die beiden Extrema von Tm (0% und 100%) lassen Vp gegen unendlich streben.
Dieses begründet sich auf der Beobachtung, dass bei Tm=0% zu wenig Kommunikation fuer ein Projekt fließt, waehrend bei Tm=100% keine Zeit zum Arbeiten bleibt.
Lg geht zur Quadratwurzel ein in Vp
Lp geht im Quatrat ein in Vp
W geht linear ein in Vp
Andere Thesen gehen davon aus, dass es sich bei dem Verpeilen nicht um ein natuerliches Phenomen, sondern ein menschliches Problem handelt. Der Nachweiss dass nur Einzelpersonen betroffen sind steht jedoch noch aus.
Posted by iscs at 31.01.05 20:30
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